Risk Reward Ratio Calculator: Win Rate & Break-Even Table
Enter entry, stop and target. Get the risk:reward ratio, the break-even win rate, expected value in R and the minimum ratio your win rate needs.
You're risking $5.00 to make $15.00 per share.
Required win rate at 1 : 3.00. Win above this and you're profitable long-term.
Profitable at this win rate.
(1 − win rate) ÷ win rate. Yours is 1 : 3.00.
| Risk : Reward | 20% win | 30% win | 40% win | 50% win | 60% win | 70% win | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 : 0.5 | -0.70 | -0.55 | -0.40 | -0.25 | -0.10 | +0.05 | 66.7% |
| 1 : 1.0 | -0.60 | -0.40 | -0.20 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.40 | 50.0% |
| 1 : 1.5 | -0.50 | -0.25 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +0.50 | +0.75 | 40.0% |
| 1 : 2.0 | -0.40 | -0.10 | +0.20 | +0.50 | +0.80 | +1.10 | 33.3% |
| 1 : 2.5 | -0.30 | +0.05 | +0.40 | +0.75 | +1.10 | +1.45 | 28.6% |
| 1 : 3.00you | -0.20 | +0.20 | +0.60 | +1.00 | +1.40 | +1.80 | 25.0% |
| 1 : 3.5 | -0.10 | +0.35 | +0.80 | +1.25 | +1.70 | +2.15 | 22.2% |
| 1 : 4.0 | 0.00 | +0.50 | +1.00 | +1.50 | +2.00 | +2.50 | 20.0% |
| 1 : 4.5 | +0.10 | +0.65 | +1.20 | +1.75 | +2.30 | +2.85 | 18.2% |
| 1 : 5.0 | +0.20 | +0.80 | +1.40 | +2.00 | +2.60 | +3.20 | 16.7% |
EV = win rate × reward − (1 − win rate). Green makes money over many trades, red loses it, yellow breaks even before costs.
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Break-even win rate and the risk reward ratio
A risk reward ratio calculator tells you how often you have to win for a trade to pay. Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + reward ÷ risk). A 1:1 trade needs 50% winners. A 1:2 trade needs 33.3%, and 1:3 needs 25%. Win more often than that and the setup has positive expected value: EV = win rate × reward − (1 − win rate) × risk.
The calculator does arithmetic on the prices and win rate you type in. It is not a recommendation to take any trade.
Break-even win rate table by risk:reward ratio
Expected value is in R, where 1R is the amount you risk on the trade. +0.20R means you make a fifth of your risk per trade, averaged over many trades.
| Risk:reward | Break-even win rate | EV at 30% wins | EV at 40% wins | EV at 50% wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:0.5 | 66.7% | −0.55R | −0.40R | −0.25R |
| 1:1 | 50.0% | −0.40R | −0.20R | 0.00R |
| 1:1.5 | 40.0% | −0.25R | 0.00R | +0.25R |
| 1:2 | 33.3% | −0.10R | +0.20R | +0.50R |
| 1:2.5 | 28.6% | +0.05R | +0.40R | +0.75R |
| 1:3 | 25.0% | +0.20R | +0.60R | +1.00R |
| 1:4 | 20.0% | +0.50R | +1.00R | +1.50R |
| 1:5 | 16.7% | +0.80R | +1.40R | +2.00R |
Read the table the other way round and you get the minimum ratio for a win rate you already have: minimum reward ÷ risk = (1 − win rate) ÷ win rate.
| Win rate | Minimum risk:reward |
|---|---|
| 30% | 1:2.33 |
| 35% | 1:1.86 |
| 40% | 1:1.50 |
| 45% | 1:1.22 |
| 50% | 1:1.00 |
| 55% | 1:0.82 |
| 60% | 1:0.67 |
So a trader who wins 60% of the time can set targets smaller than the stop and still come out ahead. One who wins 30% needs targets well over twice the stop.
Expectancy formula with a worked example
Take a long at 250 with a stop at 244 and a target at 262: you risk 6 to make 12 for a 1:2 ratio, and the break-even win rate is 33.33%. Say you risk $200 a trade (1% of a $20,000 account) and win 40% of the time.
- EV per trade = 0.40 × 2 − 0.60 × 1 = +0.20R, which is $40.
- Over 100 trades: 40 wins × $400 = $16,000, less 60 losses × $200 = $12,000, for a net $4,000.
- Drop the win rate to 30% and the same setup is −0.10R, a loss of $2,000 per 100 trades.
Ten points of win rate turned a profitable plan into a losing one. Same chart, same stop, same target. The position size calculator turns that $200 of risk into a share count.
Risk:reward vs reward:risk notation
“1:3 risk to reward” and “3:1 reward to risk” are the same trade. You risk 1 to make 3 and break even at 25%. The trouble starts with “3:1 risk reward”, which plenty of traders say when they mean reward first. Taken literally, risking 3 to make 1 needs a 75% win rate. This calculator always writes 1 : X, with X as the reward per unit of risk, so a bigger X is a better payoff.
How to measure your trading win rate
Win rate = winning trades ÷ (winning + losing trades). Decide before you start how to count scratches closed near entry, then stick to the rule. A log of 47 trades with 19 wins, 24 losses and 4 scratches is a 44.2% win rate with scratches left out and 40.4% with scratches counted as non-wins.
Sample size matters more than most traders expect. At a measured 40% win rate the 95% range is roughly 22.5% to 57.5% after 30 trades, 30.4% to 49.6% after 100 and 33.2% to 46.8% after 200. Even at 100 trades that range still straddles the 33.3% break-even of a 1:2 setup. Measure reward as what you banked rather than the planned target, since trades closed early pull the real ratio down. The trading journal works out win rate and expectancy from the trades you log.
Include costs before trusting the numbers
Commissions, spread and slippage shrink every win and enlarge every loss. Put $12 of round-trip costs on the 1:2 trade above and a win nets $388 while a loss costs $212. The effective ratio drops to 1:1.83, the break-even win rate climbs from 33.33% to 35.33%, and EV at a 40% win rate falls from $40 to $28 a trade. Costs ate 30% of the edge. The calculator does not add costs for you, so move your target and stop prices against you by the cost per share before entering them.
How to use this risk reward ratio calculator
- Pick Long or Short, then enter the entry, stop-loss and target prices.
- Set your win rate with the slider.
- Read the ratio card and the three readouts under it: the break-even (required) win rate for this ratio, the expected value per trade in R, and the minimum ratio your win rate needs.
- Scan the break-even matrix, which runs ratios from 1:0.5 to 1:5 against win rates from 20% to 70%. Green cells make money, red cells lose it and yellow cells break even. Your ratio is highlighted, or added as its own row if it is not on the grid. Your win rate column is highlighted when it lands on a 10% step.
Limits
- Every trade is assumed to end at the stop or the target. Partial exits, trailing stops and a stop moved to breakeven all change the real ratio.
- Positive expectancy does not stop losing streaks. At a 35% win rate the chance of at least ten losses in a row somewhere in 200 trades is about 62%. The drawdown recovery calculator shows what a streak like that does to the account.
- A win rate from a backtest or a short live sample is an estimate. Plan with the low end of its range.
How to use the Risk / Reward Calculator
Takes about a minute. No signup, no download, your data stays in your browser.
- 1Open the tool. Scroll up to the Risk / Reward Calculator above — it loads instantly in your browser, no install needed.
- 2Enter your values. The fields come pre-filled with realistic defaults so you can see how it works — replace them with your own numbers.
- 3Read the result. The output updates instantly. Copy or share it — nothing is uploaded to a server, everything stays on your device.
Frequently asked questions
Common questions about the Risk / Reward Calculator.
What is a good risk reward ratio?
It depends on your win rate, so there is no single good ratio. A 1:2 ratio makes money above a 33.3% win rate and 1:3 above 25%. A trader who wins 60% of the time is profitable with targets as small as 0.67 times the stop.
How do I calculate the break-even win rate?
Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + reward ÷ risk). For a 1:2 trade that is 1 ÷ 3 = 33.3%. For 1:1.5 it is 40% and for 1:4 it is 20%. Win more often than that and the trade has positive expected value before costs.
What risk reward ratio do I need for my win rate?
The minimum is (1 − win rate) ÷ win rate. At 40% wins you need at least 1:1.50, at 45% 1:1.22 and at 30% 1:2.33. Anything above the minimum has positive expectancy at that win rate.
How do I calculate expectancy in trading?
Expectancy per trade in R = win rate × reward ratio − (1 − win rate). A 1:2 setup that wins 40% of the time gives 0.40 × 2 − 0.60 = +0.20R. Risking $200 a trade, that is $40 per trade on average, or $4,000 over 100 trades.
Is a 1:3 risk reward the same as 3:1?
Usually, yes. 1:3 risk-to-reward and 3:1 reward-to-risk both mean risking 1 to make 3, with a 25% break-even win rate. Read the other way round, risking 3 to make 1, it needs a 75% win rate. This calculator always shows 1 : X, where X is the reward per unit of risk.
How do I calculate my trading win rate?
Divide winning trades by winning plus losing trades, and decide how to count scratches before you start. Then get a large sample. At a measured 40% win rate the 95% range is about ±17.5 points after 30 trades and ±9.6 points after 100.
Do commissions change the break-even win rate?
Yes. A 1:2 trade risking $200 with $12 of round-trip costs nets $388 on a win and loses $212, which lifts the break-even win rate from 33.33% to 35.33%. The calculator does not add costs, so move your target and stop prices against you by the cost per share first.
Why can a 1:3 setup still lose money?
Because the ratio only pays once you clear its 25% break-even win rate. At a 20% win rate a 1:3 setup returns 0.20 × 3 − 0.80 = −0.20R per trade. A 1:1.5 setup that wins 50% of the time returns +0.25R.
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