CTR by SERP Position — Estimator + 2023 AWR Curve

Clicks fall away far faster than position does

That asymmetry is the whole reason the curve is worth looking at. On this table, position 1 takes about 2.5 times the clicks of position 3, about 4.4 times position 5, and about 11.5 times position 10. Against position 2 the gap is smaller — roughly 1.75 times.

The practical consequence: a ranking gain is worth wildly different amounts depending on where it happens. Moving 4 to 2 is a far larger prize than moving 9 to 6, even though both are three places. Effort should follow the curve, which usually means pushing pages that already sit on the first page rather than rescuing ones that never got there.

Where this curve does not describe your query

The figures come from a 2023 Advanced Web Ranking study of desktop, non-branded search — an average over a large and very mixed set of queries. Yours is not the average, and three things move it hard.

• Branded queries. Someone searching your name has already decided. Those clicks land far above any published curve, and leaving branded terms in a site-wide CTR figure will flatter it considerably.
• SERP features. Ads, an answer box, a video carousel, a local pack or an AI-generated summary all push the first organic result down the page. "Position 1" is not the same piece of screen it was when the curve was measured, and on a feature-heavy results page it can sit well below the fold.
• Intent. A query whose answer fits in a box often gets answered on the results page, so even position 1 collects fewer clicks than the curve suggests. Queries that need a decision — comparisons, how-to, anything with a purchase behind it — behave quite differently.

The data is from 2023 and the layout has moved since. Treat the curve as a shape, not a forecast.

The useful reading: the gap between this and your own numbers

The point is comparison, not trust. Search Console gives you real impressions, clicks, position and CTR per query, so put yours beside the curve and read the difference.

• Well below it — the ranking is there and the click is not, which points at the title and description rather than the content. That is usually the cheapest fix available in SEO: same page, same position, more traffic.
• Well above it — you have found queries that suit you unusually well. Worth knowing which, because they are the ones to defend and to build more of.
• On it — nothing to see, which is itself a useful answer.

Average position hides more than it shows

It is an average across every impression, so a reported position of 8 can be a mix of 3 and 15 — and neither the average nor any CTR derived from it describes a single real search anyone performed.

Single-query positions are far more meaningful than a site-wide average for exactly this reason, and a site-wide average that includes branded terms is doubly misleading. Segment before you conclude.

Beyond position 10

The curve stops at 10. Enter something higher and the tool shows position 10's rate with a warning attached, because there is no data past the first page and real click-through there is far lower. Read those numbers as a ceiling rather than an estimate.

If your CTR sits below the curve at a position you already hold, the fix is the snippet rather than the ranking — the SERP preview tool shows how the title and description will actually render.